In March 2026, by Robert’s figures, fourth-quarter growth had been revised down to 0.7% while the Fed’s preferred inflation measure sat at 2.8%, above its 2% target. Raising rates would deepen the slowdown and cutting them would feed inflation. His point for retirees: a plan cannot count on the Fed to rescue the markets.
Why did Robert call the Fed paralyzed?
He published this on March 24, 2026, and said it was the data talking. By his figures, U.S. growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 had been revised down to 0.7%, a hair above zero. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, sat at 2.8%, above its 2% target. On top of that came a surge in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, which had not yet passed through to grocery shelves, utility bills, airfares, and manufacturing costs.
The Fed’s usual move is to raise rates when inflation rises and cut them when growth slows. Stagflation, which economists were discussing in public by then, is both at once. Raising rates makes the growth problem worse, cutting them makes the inflation problem worse, and no move is clean. The figures are his, from that week.
What does a new Fed chair inherit?
Jerome Powell’s term as chair was due to end in May 2026. Robert said his successor would walk into what may be the hardest monetary environment since Paul Volcker, who pushed interest rates to 20% to break inflation around 1980. He was clear he was not predicting that. His point was that the Fed had less room to maneuver than at any time in the previous 15 years.
Why does this matter for your retirement plan?
For more than a decade, most retirement income plans carried an unstated assumption: if markets got bad enough, the Fed would step in. It did in 2008 and in 2020, cutting rates and adding liquidity, and markets recovered. With inflation above target, that backstop is less certain, because a fast rate cut risks restarting inflation. For a retiree drawing income from a portfolio in that environment, the plan has to stand on its own. Robert is fair about it: the assumption has been right for 15 years and may be right again. A plan that rests on one assumption under real pressure is a fragile plan.
What protects retirees when the Fed cannot?
Income that does not depend on market performance, and that keeps paying whatever the Fed does. Robert lists the fundamentals: Social Security optimization, pension strategies where they apply, and the timing of your cash flow. None of these is exotic, and they help if they are in place before a crisis, not after. A decline while you are withdrawing is where sequence of returns risk does its damage.
What should you do if the news makes you uneasy?
Trust the instinct. Robert does not expect a catastrophe, and he thinks your plan should give you confidence whatever the Fed does next. If it does not, get a second set of eyes on it. His 30-minute retirement clarity call is one place to do that. This page reflects his commentary and figures at the time of recording, and it is not a forecast.
Common questions
- What is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure?
- The personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE. The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation on that measure. In March 2026, by Robert’s figures, it stood at 2.8%.
- Why can’t the Fed fix stagflation?
- Its main tool pulls in two directions. Raising interest rates slows inflation and also slows growth, and cutting rates supports growth and also feeds inflation. With both problems present, each move makes one of them worse.
- Has the Fed rescued markets before?
- In 2008 and in 2020 it cut rates and added liquidity, and markets recovered. Robert’s concern is that high inflation limits how fast it can do the same in the next decline, so a retirement plan should not depend on it.
If the decisions on this page are ahead of you, the two of you can work through them with Robert Boeck before any of them becomes permanent.
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