An energy shock like the one the Iran conflict set off in March 2026 raises the cost of nearly everything and can hit portfolios at the same time. For someone in the first years of retirement and drawing income, that pairing is sequence of returns risk with inflation on top. Robert’s answer is a plan built for disruption.
Why did the conflict matter for oil?
Robert published this on March 23, 2026. The mainstream advice at the time was to stay calm, stay the course and trust that markets are resilient, and he agreed that some of that was true. The part he thought people skipped was the energy supply. Oil prices surged when the Strait of Hormuz came under threat, a corridor that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply by his figure. Energy price spikes raise the cost of nearly everything else: groceries, transportation, utilities, manufacturing and health care.
How does an energy shock hit a new retiree?
Through sequence of returns risk. If your portfolio takes a significant hit in the early years of retirement while you are drawing income from it, the damage is hard to recover from, because you are selling while values are down. The math compounds against you in a way it does not for someone who is working and contributing. A sustained energy shock, and the inflation it brings, is the kind of environment that sets off that risk.
What did the 1970s show?
The last time the U.S. had an energy crisis, inflation lasted close to a decade. People who retired into it, and thought they had enough, watched their purchasing power shrink year after year: their income stayed the same while the world got more expensive. Robert calls that gap between what you have and what things cost the real retirement risk, and it pays no attention to how well your portfolio did before the crisis started.
What should you do?
Robert is not telling anyone the world is ending, and he is clear that panic is never a strategy. He is as clear that “don’t worry, things will be fine” is not a retirement income plan. The retirees who get through periods like this built their plans for disruption: income sources that do not depend on market performance alone, a buffer, and a plan B in place before the headlines started. If the news leaves you uneasy, use that to get an honest look at whether your plan holds in the world as it is. His 30-minute retirement clarity call is where to do it. This page reflects his commentary at the time of recording.
Common questions
- How much of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz?
- About a fifth of the world’s oil supply, by Robert’s figure, which is why a threat to the strait moves prices worldwide within days.
- Why is inflation risky in retirement?
- A retiree’s income often stays level while prices rise, so purchasing power shrinks each year. In the 1970s energy crisis, inflation lasted close to a decade, and retirees on fixed incomes fell further behind with each year it ran.
- Should you stay the course during a geopolitical crisis?
- Staying invested can be right, and it works when your plan covers your spending without forcing you to sell in a decline. Advice to stay the course, with no review of your own income sources, leaves that question unanswered.
If the decisions on this page are ahead of you, the two of you can work through them with Robert Boeck before any of them becomes permanent.
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